Europe needs a Trump strategy

Rarely since the end of the Second World War have relations between European powers and the US faced such uncertainty. The 47th president has injected this fear into many relationships around the world, with Donald Trump shaking up some of the pillars of the international system. This comes at a time when many key European powers, including France and Germany, are facing their own internal challenges.

The relationship between the US and Western Europe has been at the heart of the primary economic and security alliance in that system. They form the bedrock of the world’s most powerful military alliance, NATO. The US and European powers have joined together in many military interventions, such as against Daesh or in Kuwait in 1991. Since 2022, they have acted in concert to back Ukraine.

Take none of this for granted now. Trump sees Europe as having sponged off the US and become overly reliant on American military cover without being willing to pay for it. He is not the only American president to make this point, but he is prepared to do something about it.

This is one of the least complex issues for European powers to resolve. They at least know what they must do: boost defense spending to as much as 5 percent of their national incomes. Some, like Poland and Estonia, are pushing ahead with this, motivated by fears of Russian aggression on the back of its invasion of Ukraine. It will be painful economically, but the path is clear.

But even if European powers do invest more, will Trump have their back? What happens if a NATO member is attacked and triggers Article 5, which requires its allies to assist? He has not confirmed that the US will honor this obligation.

Meanwhile, Greenland looms as the iceberg that could sink this titanic relationship. Trump wants Greenland to be part of the US. He told reporters on Air Force One: “I think we're going to have it.” Yet the world’s biggest island is sovereign Danish territory. Denmark is meant to be a US ally. Greenland is strategically important, halfway across the Atlantic and with significant mineral wealth. Denmark insists that Greenlanders have the right to determine their future.

This is no minor territorial squabble. Denmark is a founding member of NATO and a member of the EU. Trump has not ruled out using force or economic coercion. It could compel many European powers to make a choice. The French Foreign Ministry has acknowledged that sending European troops to Greenland had been discussed, but Denmark does not want to pursue this option for now.

Copenhagen will have to work hard with its European allies to ensure a unified and robust position to limit US ambitions. A compromise may be possible.

Many think this might be another Trump opening gambit. Is he pushing for greater access to Greenland for military bases and mineral rights? Quite possibly but, if so, what will he do on other issues?

Already, the trade wars have started. Trump has imposed tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, with both countries promising to retaliate in kind. The EU is on the president’s list of targets, not least because the bloc exports far more to the US than it imports. The president believes tariffs will energize the US economy, though critics say they will just boost inflation. The EU does not seek a tit-for-tat tariff war but looks like it may have little choice.

Creative diplomacy may be required to limit the fallout. Trump will want to deliver on his protectionist promises, but can he be persuaded to minimize the tariffs?

As for broader geopolitical issues, European powers have concerns over how the US will handle Russia and Ukraine. Trump wants to end the war, something his predecessor made little progress on. Yet Ukraine and many Eastern European and Baltic states fear peace could come at their expense and undermine their security.

The EU is on the president’s list of targets, not least because the bloc exports far more to the US than it imports.

Chris Doyle

In the Middle East, Trump has already shaken things up. His firm position with Israel got the ceasefire deal over the line, but will he ensure that phases two and three get implemented? Only he can ensure Israel abides by its commitments.

Europe needs this and other conflicts not just to calm down but to be resolved. Instability on its borders is far from being in its interest, as it is a driver of migration and extremism.

Iran was another divisive issue with Europe in Trump’s first term. Much will depend on what the president’s strategy will turn out to be. The EU will not be unhappy if Trump does as he has hinted and engage with Iran for a deal. European powers should encourage him down this path, trying along the way to help by making constructive suggestions as to the contours of what might be possible.

All this highlights why Europe needs a Trump strategy. The American president is making all the running and setting the agenda on his terms. That is his prerogative. But if core European interests are to be protected, the continent is going to have to pull together and find ways to engage the White House collectively. Acting unilaterally is unlikely to make much impact.

• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech